Vietnam Faces Record Low Birth Rate in 2024: Implications for the Future
Vietnam’s birth rate has reached a historic low in 2024, sparking concerns about the nation’s demographic and economic future. According to reports, the fertility rate dropped to 1.91 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 for the third consecutive year. This decline highlights a growing challenge for a country aiming to sustain its economic development while addressing the needs of an aging population.
The downward trend in Vietnam’s birth rate has been evident over the past few years, with the rate at 2.01 in 2022 and 1.93 in 2023. A replacement-level fertility rate is essential to maintain population stability, and without intervention, the consequences could be severe. Officials predict that Vietnam’s population of 100 million may begin to shrink by mid-century. According to Pham Vu Hoang, deputy director of the health ministry's population authority, this could result in a gradual annual population decline starting around 2054. Current projections estimate a drop of 0.04 percent annually by 2054, worsening to a 0.18 percent decline—equivalent to 200,000 people per year—by 2069.
The aging population further compounds these challenges. By 2049, Vietnam is expected to join the ranks of “super-aged societies,” with over 20 percent of its population aged 65 or older. This demographic shift poses significant risks to the country’s economic growth and social welfare systems. While Vietnam has demonstrated robust economic progress, with annual GDP growth exceeding 5 percent in recent years, maintaining such growth amidst an aging population will require strategic interventions.
Gender imbalance is another pressing issue contributing to Vietnam’s demographic concerns. For every 100 female births, there are approximately 112 male births, a disparity Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong has highlighted as critical. While recent efforts have slightly improved these figures, the imbalance remains a challenge that could have long-term societal implications.
In response to these concerns, Vietnam’s health ministry is taking action to stabilize fertility rates. Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen announced the development of a new population law, which is expected to be presented to the National Assembly in 2025. This law aims to encourage women to give birth before the age of 35 and eliminate penalties for having a third child. The government is also exploring global best practices to design effective policies tailored to Vietnam’s unique demographic needs.
Additionally, the proposed measures include improving access to reproductive health services, enhancing healthcare for the elderly, and bolstering communication about population challenges. These initiatives aim to address the root causes of the declining birth rate while improving the overall quality of life for Vietnamese citizens.
Vietnam is not alone in facing these challenges. Similar trends have been observed in other East Asian nations, including China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. However, Vietnam’s proactive steps, such as policy reform and education campaigns, offer hope for mitigating the effects of its demographic transition.
The declining birth rate is a multifaceted issue, requiring collaborative efforts between the government, healthcare providers, and society at large. As Vietnam works to address this challenge, its actions could serve as a model for other nations grappling with similar demographic concerns.
Refrence From: www.ndtv.com