SIPRI Warns of New Nuclear Arms Race as China Rapidly Expands Arsenal
A sobering new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has revealed that China has added approximately 100 new nuclear warheads over the past two years, raising the total size of its nuclear arsenal to at least 600 by early 2025. The international security think tank has warned that this surge in nuclear weapon stockpiling signals the onset of a “dangerous new arms race,” at a time when traditional arms control mechanisms are weakening or collapsing altogether.
The report, released as part of SIPRI’s Yearbook 2025, presents a comprehensive analysis of global armaments, disarmament, and international security. It states that nearly all nuclear-armed nations, including the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel, are actively modernizing and expanding their nuclear capabilities. SIPRI Director Dan Smith emphasized the urgency of the situation, warning that the rapid development of nuclear programs and emerging technologies threatens global stability.
According to SIPRI’s findings, the global nuclear arsenal stood at approximately 12,241 warheads as of January 2025. Of these, about 9,614 were held in military stockpiles, and an estimated 3,912 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft. Alarmingly, around 2,100 of these warheads are in a state of high operational alert, primarily under the control of the United States and Russia. However, the report notes that China may now be keeping some of its nuclear warheads on missiles during peacetime, a significant shift in posture.
China’s nuclear development is notable not just for its speed but also for its scale. SIPRI’s data indicates that China has completed or is nearing completion of around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos in several large fields across northern and eastern China. If China continues at this pace, it could match or exceed the ICBM counts of the United States or Russia by the end of the decade. Projections suggest that China’s nuclear arsenal could grow to 1,000 warheads within seven to eight years and potentially reach 1,500 by 2035.
Despite this rapid growth, China’s stockpile would still be considerably smaller than those of the US and Russia, which hold 5,177 and 5,459 nuclear warheads respectively, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the global total. Nevertheless, SIPRI stresses that the qualitative and technological advances in China’s program—including the construction of silos and a shift in deployment policies—represent a strategic shift with global implications.
The report also highlights changes in India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear postures. India is believed to have slightly expanded its arsenal and made advances in its missile delivery systems, including the development of canisterized missiles that may be capable of carrying multiple warheads and being deployed in peacetime. Pakistan continues to build new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material, indicating its intent to expand its capabilities in the coming decade.
SIPRI expresses concern that a decades-long trend of nuclear reductions—most prominently led by Russia and the US since the end of the Cold War—is now reversing. This reversal is driven by the slowed dismantlement of older warheads and the accelerated deployment of new ones. For the first time in many years, the global inventory may rise in the coming years rather than decline.
The report also touches on the role of emerging technologies in reshaping nuclear strategy and global security. It warns that innovations in artificial intelligence, missile defense, cyber warfare, and quantum technology are redefining nuclear deterrence and vulnerability. Ocean-based quantum deployments and space assets could significantly alter the strategic calculus of global powers, introducing new forms of instability into an already fragile security environment.
Meanwhile, North Korea is estimated to have around 50 nuclear warheads and enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more. Although its numbers remain smaller compared to other nuclear states, its continued development of missile systems and refusal to engage in international arms agreements make it a persistent global concern.
The SIPRI Yearbook also examines the geopolitical context in which this arms race is unfolding. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and other regions have strained international relations and deepened divisions between major global powers. The report further notes the impact of Donald Trump's re-election, which has created additional uncertainty around the future direction of U.S. foreign policy and its role in global security alliances.
SIPRI’s experts conclude that the era of global nuclear disarmament may be ending, giving way to a renewed focus on military strength and strategic deterrence. Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow at SIPRI and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, underscored this shift, stating that nuclear rhetoric is becoming more aggressive, arms control agreements are being abandoned, and trust among global powers is deteriorating.
As nations prepare for a potentially more dangerous nuclear future, the international community faces urgent questions about how to revive arms control frameworks, manage technological disruptions, and prevent catastrophic escalation. The SIPRI report serves as a critical warning that the world is approaching a tipping point in nuclear stability.