Sensex Soars 750 Points as Trump Announces Israel-Iran Ceasefire

Indian stock markets saw a dramatic recovery on Tuesday, rebounding sharply after US President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. The announcement brought temporary relief to global investors who had been rattled by the escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on global oil supply chains.

At the opening bell, the BSE Sensex surged more than 750 points, while the NSE Nifty 50 climbed over 270 points. As of 9:30 am, the Sensex stood at 82,670, and the Nifty hovered around 25,200. All 13 major sectoral indices opened in the green, reflecting a positive sentiment across the board. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks also witnessed a healthy gain of around 0.9%, signaling broad-based market optimism.

This comes after a bearish Monday, when both the benchmark indices had slipped by approximately 0.6% following the United States’ participation in military airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The strikes marked a peak in hostilities that began on June 13, when Israel targeted Iranian nuclear sites, citing intelligence reports indicating Tehran was nearing the capability to build a nuclear weapon.

Tensions had further escalated on Sunday, when the US military launched a coordinated strike with Israel, bombing three major Iranian nuclear installations. These developments triggered a sell-off across global markets and sent oil prices surging over supply concerns. However, with Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire, markets have begun to stabilize.

The ceasefire, according to Trump, includes an immediate halt to hostilities by Tehran, followed by a 12-hour delay before Israel’s cessation of military actions. This conditional approach aims to ensure that both sides commit to the terms without further provocation. Although there has been no official confirmation from Israel about the ceasefire, and despite early-morning reports of missile fire from Iran towards Israeli territory, investors responded with cautious optimism.

Oil markets also reacted swiftly. Brent crude futures fell by $2.08, or 2.9%, to $69.40 per barrel by 9 am. Earlier, prices had tumbled over 4%, hitting their lowest levels since June 11. The fall in crude prices provided relief to oil-importing nations like India, where inflation is heavily influenced by global energy costs.

Market analysts welcomed the development but urged caution. “If the ceasefire is followed as announced, investors might expect the return to normalcy in oil,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior analyst at Phillip Nova. She emphasized that much depends on the adherence to ceasefire terms by both countries. “The extent to which Israel and Iran adhere to the recently announced ceasefire conditions will play a significant role in determining oil prices.”

Iran, the third-largest oil producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has long been under sanctions that limit its ability to export oil freely. Any easing of tensions could open the door for increased exports, which in turn may stabilize or even reduce oil prices further. This would be a favorable outcome for emerging economies, especially India, which imports nearly 80% of its crude oil needs.

The conflict had led to heightened concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Any disruption to this route could have catastrophic implications for global trade and energy markets. The ceasefire, even if fragile, alleviates some of those fears and contributes to a more stable trading environment.

Investor sentiment was also bolstered by gains across all key sectors. Banking, IT, auto, and energy stocks led the rally. Shares of major public sector banks and private lenders surged as falling crude prices are expected to ease inflationary pressure and reduce interest rate risks. Technology firms also benefitted from renewed foreign investor interest, while auto and consumer goods stocks rose on expectations of stable fuel prices.

Despite the gains, experts warned of underlying volatility. “This is a highly fluid geopolitical situation. Markets are pricing in the best-case scenario, but investors should stay alert for any breach of the ceasefire,” said Anuj Mehra, a portfolio manager with a Mumbai-based investment firm.

Donald Trump’s involvement in brokering the ceasefire has drawn global attention, especially considering the absence of official confirmations from Israeli authorities. While the former US President emphasized full agreement between the two countries, recent missile activity suggests that tensions may not be fully extinguished.

Nevertheless, for Indian investors and policymakers, the ceasefire comes as a temporary lifeline. With inflationary concerns looming due to global supply chain disruptions and high energy costs, any stability in oil prices brings much-needed relief. Moreover, the sharp rebound in markets reflects investors’ willingness to respond positively to geopolitical de-escalation—even if cautiously so.

As the day progresses, investors will be closely watching official responses from both Israel and Iran, as well as oil market movements, to gauge whether this rally has legs or proves to be a short-lived bounce.