Fact Check: Breaking Down Donald Trump's Claims About Canada
Donald Trump has made several claims about Canada, its economy, and its relationship with the United States, some of which have raised concerns about accuracy. He has argued that Canada's economic survival depends on the U.S., suggested that American banks cannot operate in Canada, and exaggerated trade deficits and border security concerns. A closer look at the facts reveals that many of these statements misrepresent reality.
Claim 1: Canada Gets 95% of Its Products from the U.S.
One of Trump's most repeated claims is that Canada imports 95% of its products from the United States. However, data from Statistics Canada contradicts this. In 2024, about 62.2% of Canada's total imports came from the U.S., which is far from the 95% figure.
While it is true that the U.S. is Canada's largest trading partner, Trump’s statement ignores Canada’s diversified trade relationships. Canada also imports significant amounts of goods from China, Mexico, Germany, and other countries. University of Toronto economist Joseph Steinberg clarified that while the U.S. accounts for a significant portion of imports, the 95% figure is an exaggeration.
Additionally, Canada produces a large share of the goods its citizens consume domestically. The idea that Canada would not be "viable" as a country without U.S. imports is misleading. The economic relationship between the two countries is mutually beneficial, not one-sided.
Claim 2: The U.S. Has a $200–$250 Billion Trade Deficit with Canada
Trump has also repeatedly claimed that the United States has a trade deficit with Canada ranging from $200 billion to $250 billion. However, official statistics tell a different story.
According to the United States Trade Representative and the U.S. Census Bureau, the actual trade deficit with Canada was around $63.3 billion at the end of 2024. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada reported a trade surplus of Can$102.3 billion ($70.3 billion) in favor of Canada.
These figures indicate that while the U.S. does import more from Canada than it exports, the deficit is far lower than Trump claims. Furthermore, trade deficits do not mean one country is “subsidizing” another. Trade is a two-way exchange, and U.S. businesses and consumers benefit from Canadian imports, including oil, lumber, and manufactured goods.
Claim 3: American Banks Are Not Allowed to Operate in Canada
Trump recently claimed that "American banks are not allowed to do business in Canada." This statement is completely false.
Canada's banking system is regulated by the federal Bank Act, which allows foreign banks, including American ones, to operate within the country. The Canadian Bankers Association confirmed that 16 U.S.-based banks currently operate in Canada, managing assets worth around Can$113 billion.
Major American banks such as JP Morgan Chase, CitiBank, and Bank of America have offices and branches in major Canadian cities, providing financial services to businesses and individuals. Trump’s claim ignores the reality that American financial institutions are actively engaged in the Canadian market.
Claim 4: Canada is a Major Source of Illegal Migrants and Drugs Entering the U.S.
One of Trump’s most controversial claims is that Canada is a key source of illegal migration and drug trafficking into the U.S., particularly fentanyl. He has used this claim to justify stricter border security policies and tariffs on Canadian goods.
However, the data does not support his assertion. According to the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), less than 1% of the fentanyl entering the United States comes from Canada. In 2024, CBP agents intercepted over 21,800 pounds (9,900 kilograms) of fentanyl nationwide, but only 43 pounds were seized at the northern border. The vast majority of fentanyl comes through the southern border, primarily from Mexico.
Similarly, the number of undocumented migrants crossing from Canada into the U.S. is relatively low. In 2024, CBP recorded 23,721 illegal crossings from Canada, compared to over 1.5 million at the U.S.-Mexico border. Kelly Sundberg, a criminologist at Mount Royal University, pointed out that Canada is more likely to receive threats from illegal activities originating in the U.S., including gun smuggling and drug trafficking.
Claim 5: Canada Should Become the 51st U.S. State
Trump has suggested that Canada’s economic reliance on the U.S. makes it a candidate to become America’s 51st state. While this statement was likely meant to be provocative rather than serious policy, it ignores Canada’s strong national identity, political independence, and international trade relationships beyond the U.S.
Canada has a stable economy, strong democratic institutions, and independent trade agreements with the European Union and Asia. While the U.S. is a crucial partner, Canada is far from economically dependent on Washington to the extent Trump suggests.
Conclusion
Donald Trump’s claims about Canada often exaggerate the economic and security relationship between the two countries. While the U.S. is Canada’s largest trade partner, the idea that Canada is entirely dependent on American imports is misleading. The trade deficit Trump describes is significantly smaller than he claims, and American banks operate freely in Canada. Furthermore, concerns about migration and drug trafficking from Canada into the U.S. are overstated.
The U.S.-Canada relationship is built on mutual trade benefits, not a one-sided dependency. Rather than relying on exaggerated rhetoric, accurate data should guide discussions about trade, border security, and economic policy.